“Anora” (2024), despite its disappointing Golden Globes performance (where it lost in all five of its nominated categories), has had a monumental weekend, sweeping the top prizes at the Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA) and Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA). These victories have firmly positioned the film as the frontrunner for Best Picture at the upcoming 97th Academy Awards. This trajectory mirrors that of “Birdman” (2014) exactly 10 years ago, a film that, like “Anora,” failed to win major Golden Globe categories such as Picture, Director and Screenplay, but triumphed at the DGA and PGA, ultimately claiming Best Picture at the Oscars.
Both “Anora” and “Birdman” share another similarity: each is a contender in one major technical category. For “Anora,” it’s the coveted Best Film Editing, while “Birdman” earned acclaim in Best Cinematography. These technical wins often serve as key indicators of a film’s overall appeal with voters.
Another similarity between their Oscar campaigns lies in the performances of their leads. Both Mikey Madison of “Anora” and Michael Keaton of “Birdman”—who play the titular characters—are in tight races for Best Actress and Best Actor, respectively. Keaton, despite his memorable portrayal of Riggan, lost the Best Actor Oscar to Eddie Redmayne for his showier, more traditional Oscar-bait performance as Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything” (2014). Despite “Anora’s” frontrunner status, Madison is unlikely to claim the Best Actress Oscar, which will likely go to Demi Moore for her remarkable performance in “The Substance” (2024) or, in a potential upset, to Fernanda Torres for her subtle work in “I’m Still Here” (2024).
“Birdman” eventually triumphed in Best Picture over the early frontrunner “Boyhood,” which had dominated early precursors such as the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, but lacked the same guild and industry support that “Birdman” garnered. “Anora” appears to be in a similar position, offering a more crowd-pleasing, emotional experience compared to films like “The Brutalist” (2024), which some voters may find too long and slow, or “Emilia Pérez” (2024), which has faced controversies in recent weeks.
The trajectory of “Anora” feels eerily reminiscent of “Birdman,” both in terms of its awards strategy and challenges in the acting categories, making for a fascinating parallel as both films head toward Oscar night.
