2024 was filled with many sensational films, and now is the time to recognize the cream of the crop. The 97th Academy Awards are coming up on March 2nd, and there are a lot of interesting races this year. Some categories may practically be a lock, while others will be debated about until a name is read from the envelope. Either way, there are a lot of categories to be had about the nominees. One of those conversations is whether or not the Academy will be right with their picks. I have seen the majority of the nominated films and I have also been keeping up with the big precursor awards and predictions. I have a pretty good sense of some of the possible upcoming winners, but that does not mean those are the winners that I would pick. Although, I will say that this year my opinions are kind of close to the potential opinions of the film industry. However, there is a possibility that I change my predictions when I fill out my Oscar predictions ballot. Not to brag, but I almost always get the most predictions right in my family’s competition. It’s never black and white when it comes to Oscar predictions, everything is always shifting and opinions are always changing. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the eight above the line Oscar categories, along with what I believe, personally, should win those categories.
When looking back at recent years, this year’s Best Picture race may be one of the tightest. Usually there is an undeniable frontrunner by this point, but this year, while there is a strong frontrunner, it feels vulnerable. At this point, I believe “Anora” is going to be this year’s Best Picture. This comedy about a stripper (who is also a sex worker) that gets married to the son of a Russian oligarch has been in the award conversation for many months, ever since it won the Palme D’or at the Cannes Film Festival. However, while people always had a feeling it was going to be nominated, the winning conversations picked up speed recently, as it won the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards and the Directors Guild Awards. There are other films that could possibly be the Best Picture, but the odds are looking pretty good for “Anora.” In addition, out of the 10 nominees, “Anora” is the film that I want to win Best Picture the most. I feel that this movie was a lot of fun and the overall product was quite unique. It was filled with terrific performances, great storytelling, wonderful aesthetics, and it kept me on the edge of my seat the entire way through. “Anora” was the film that stayed with me the longest after seeing it and the one that I would want to recommend to a peer the most. It does not happen often, but this year, I believe that the Academy is going to make the correct Best Picture choice.
When it comes to acting, the Academy is a fan of emotional roles. They see them as a sign of powerful performances. That is a big reason why Adrian Brody is the likely Best Actor winner for his portrayal of Laszlo Toth in “The Brutalist.” For three and a half hours, Brody showed Holocaust survivor struggles and chased the American dream through painful obstacles (he may have been on screen for less than three and a half hours, but I digress). It was a heartbreaking and layered role that displayed Brody’s talents. He has emerged recently as a frontrunner, winning various important awards. Now, while I would not be disappointed by Brody winning as I think he does a terrific job, he is not my number one choice out of this lineup. I think Timothée Chalamet should win for this portrayal of Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” There can be a lot of pressure in playing such a legendary figure, but Chalamet lived up to the expectations. He embodied the intriguing singer, showing qualities that make Dylan both a star and an enigma. Not to mention, he did a great job at the singing aspect. He sounded like Dylan while also incorporating his own natural voice, creating an excellent sound. Brody’s recognition is earned, but I believe Chalamet is more worthy of the award.
This year’s Best Actress line-up is full of many unique roles, less cookie-cutter than previous lineups. That is seen in the expected winner for this year’s race, Demi Moore. Moore is nominated for playing Elizabeth Sparkle in “The Substance.” “The Substance” is a horror film, which hardly ever gets recognition from the Academy. Nevertheless, Moore knocked it out of the park as she portrayed an aging actress who has a desperate need for the spotlight. Along with the various precursor awards that she has picked up, Moore also has a narrative going into the race. She has been in Hollywood forever but has never been an Oscar nominee before, and this role is the one that is allowing people to take her seriously as she shows off her talents. However, despite Moore’s talents, my personal pick for this award would be Mikey Madison, who plays the titular role in “Anora.” While Moore is the frontrunner, the award is not guaranteed. Since “Anora” has been getting so much buzz, and Madison has picked up some precursors it is possible for Madison to win. That is the scenario that I am hoping for, as I loved Madison’s performance as a foul-mouthed stripper/sex-worker. She makes her character’s highs look thrilling and her lows look distressing, and the transition between those feelings look natural. The character of Anora is all over the place, yet Madison makes her down-to-earth, like a possible friend. Madison will have more opportunities in the future, and Moore should get recognition for her work, but I see Anora as the performance of a lifetime, one that makes Madison worthy of the top prize for actresses.
This category probably has the surest winner out of all of them. Since the beginning of the awards season, everyone has been raving about Kieran Culkin’s performance as Benji in the heartfelt comedy “A Real Pain.” He has won practically every precursor leading up to the Oscars, so it would be the biggest upset at this point if he did not win. Fortunately, I agree with this choice and Culkin definitely gave the best performance out of the Supporting Actor line-up. Benji is a complex character, one that can be quirky and bouncing off the walls one minute, but nervous and reflective the next. Culkin was quite captivating and I can see why he has been the front-runner in the race. There have been arguments that this nomination is a case of category fraud, and that Culkin should be a lead, but, frankly, I disagree. The movie is seen through the perspective of Jesse Eisenberg’s character and we do not explore Culkin’s character’s point of view as much. He mostly serves as a foil and, even though he grabs attention, he is not the star. So not only am I glad that Culkin is being recognized for his performance, I believe it is totally fair. For that matter, I am glad “A Real Pain” is being recognized at all, since I believe it was better than all of the Best Picture nominees. I will accept Culkin’s win as a consolation prize.
Similar to Culkin, the Best Supporting Actress has emerged with one obvious frontrunner. The precursors of this season have been mostly won by Zoe Saldana for her performance in “Emilia Perez.” Saldana stars as head-strong lawyer Rita Castro, a role that has won over many industry people. Another similarity with the Best Supporting Actor frontrunner is that many people believe that this nomination is category fraud. In this scenario, I agree with the general public. She likely was submitted as supporting since she is not the titular character, but she still controls most of the movie and a lot of Emilia Perez’s journey is seen through Rita’s eyes. There is also controversy with the film itself, as people find it to be transphobic and offensive towards Mexicans. Nevertheless, the film industry loved this movie and it looks like they are set on rewarding Saldana. While Saldana is clearly talented and she gave this part her all, I was just not that captivated by her portrayal. If I were awarding the Best Supporting Actress from the five nominees, I would give the award to Ariana Grande for playing Glinda in “Wicked.” Grande’s role was a lot of fun and, even though it has been done several times on stage, she made the part her own. She created some of the biggest laughs of the movie and made audiences love and hate her at the same time. I was not the biggest fan of “Wicked,” but Grande was stand-out amongst the star-studded cast and she is more worthy than Saldana of that Oscar.
Out of the above the line categories, the director is probably the toughest one to predict at the moment, probably even more than Best Actress. At the moment though, I am leaning towards Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.” He has gotten awards leading up to the Oscars, and “The Brutalist” feels like a film that would get Best Director. It is a three and a half hour epic that takes place over decades across many locations, with many artistic shots that emphasize architecture’s importance to the film. However, there is also the possibility of Sean Baker for “Anora,” as the film is a frontrunner for Best Picture and, as previously mentioned, Baker won at the Director’s Guild Awards. Personally, I preferred Baker as a director over Corbet, and over the other nominees, as he incorporated various tones and artistic styles, from the moody strip club to the glorious mansion, to bring this raunchy comedy to a whole new level. Another director may have made this film seem like just another silly comedy, but Baker fleshed out the characters and the different scenarios with his directing, which is what built up the excitement throughout the movie. It is possible for Baker to get that deserved win, and I may change my prediction later to that outcome, but right now, Corbet as a Best Director winner makes the most sense.
While the main rivals of the Best Director category are in the Original Screenplay category as well, this category seems less tough. When it comes to the script, this award seems like it is going to “Anora.” It is the clever story that carries this film, along with the witty dialogue and engaging sequences across the film. In “Anora” the screenplay is the star. Considering the love the film is getting, this victory seems like a no-brainer. However, even though I have been singing this film’s praises, it is not my favorite screenplay out of this group. That honor would have to go to “A Real Pain.” Ideally, this film would be a part of the Best Picture lineup, and this screenplay nomination shows that it was one the cusp. “A Real Pain” is not a flashy film, meaning it is all about storytelling and dialogue. From hilarious to emotional lines, this screenplay felt realistic yet enthralling, and every word felt like it mattered. If “Anora’s” screenplay is the star of the show, then “A Real Pain’s” screenplay is the show. I would be okay with“Anora” winning Original Screenplay, but a win in this category for “A Real Pain” would be great.
It can be difficult to bring a previously-written story to life, but the nominees for Adapted Screenplay took on that challenge and succeeded. Specifically, one film’s adapted story enthralled many people of the film industry. That film is “Conclave.” This movie about the selection of a new pope at the Vatican, based on the novel of the same name, had a compelling story with many twists and turns. When watching this film, audiences have to pay attention to every word being said, as every scene affects the overall story in some way. “Conclave” has already had great recognition and seems to be a big contender for Best Picture, so the win for Adapted Screenplay seems natural. However, if this award were up to me, I would want to give the award to “A Complete Unknown,” which is based on the book “Dylan Goes Electric.” The musician biopic has been done to death, so it has become a bit challenging for some recent versions of this style to stand out. Luckily, “A Complete Unknown” jumped over that hurdle, thanks to its fantastic screenplay. It approached Dylan’s story from a unique angle and displayed some captivating conversations between Dylan and his peers. While there were some traditional elements in this film, they were blended with some innovative components to create a compelling portrait. “Conclave” will be a quality winner, but “A Complete Unknown” would be, in my opinion, a superior winner.
