The 2026 MLB postseason has been nothing short of paradoxical. Based on regular season win counts and success, the playoffs could be perfectly predicted. However, based on recent history and preconceived notions, some developments have been quite surprising.
In the Wild Card round, the White Sox, with their 84-78 record, prevailed over the 81-81 Houston Astros, who set the record for the worst record of a playoff team ever. Shockingly, this allowed them to win the American League West division, giving them home field advantage for the series against the White Sox. On the surface, this may not seem surprising given the White Sox’ better regular season performance. However, the White Sox made history this year by making the playoffs after having three straight seasons losing 100 games (2023, 2024, and 2025), with 2024’s 41-121 campaign being the worst in baseball history. The Astros, on the other hand, have, for all their controversy, been a juggernaut in recent years, winning the World Series in 2017 and 2022, and making the playoffs every year from 2017 to 2024. In a somewhat similar model to the Astros in the early 2010s, who also suffered three straight 100-loss seasons, the White Sox have stockpiled young talent through the MLB draft, which prioritizes giving higher draft picks to teams that have performed poorly. As the Astros’ young core from years past has aged, regressed, and left, could we be seeing a “passing of the torch” to the White Sox?
In the other half of the American League Wild Card bracket, the Yankees humiliated (tragically in my view) the Red Sox in a rematch of the 2025 series, with Boston being trounced 9-0 and 9-2 in two games, crushing the Boston bullpen and taking advantage of Boston’s offensive ineptitude in September. Once again, the team with a better record (93-68 vs. 87-75) prevailed. Many expected this series to be a hard fought battle. Instead, Boston was trounced, and serious offensive and managerial issues were brought into national daylight.
On the National League side, the 91-71 Padres defeated the 89-73 Cubs. While key San Diego players like Fernando Tatis Jr. struggled significantly at the plate to start the year, the team rebounded and captured the top NL wild card spot. The Cubs relied on star offense and defensive contributions from players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman during the regular season, but the team’s pitching inadequacies were exposed, with Chicago being defeated 8-0 and 4-1.
In the other half of the bracket, the 88-74 Phillies, who collapsed significantly in September, nearly losing a playoff spot, fell to the 96-68 Braves in three games. Philadelphia went 10-14 in the month of September, and major questions are now being posed about the team’s future. Players like Aaron Nola, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper are on long-term contracts that will take them into their late 30s, when regressions are common. Players like Nola and Turner have already seemingly begun to regress, and the Phillies do not have much rising talent, with their minor league “farm” system being ranked near the bottom of the league. In addition, The Phillies’ window may be closing, especially given the team has exited the postseason earlier almost every year lately. After being eliminated in the World Series in 2022, they fell in the NLCS in 2023, the NLDS in 2024 and 2025, and the NL Wild Card in 2026. By contrast, after missing the postseason last year, Atlanta rebounded with a strong campaign this year, before an NLDS loss to the Dodgers.
On that topic, the two ALDS matchups saw the Tampa Bay Rays prevail over the New York Yankees, and the Cleveland Guardians triumph over the Chicago White Sox. After having to play their relatively poor 2025 season in the Yankees’ spring training facility, expectations were low prior to the season. However, the Rays’ combination of power from sluggers like Junior Caminero, speed and “small ball” (bunts, sacrifice flys, and using groundouts to advance runners) from players like Chandler Simpson, and excellent pitching carried them to a 98-64 record, the best in the American League. Taking advantage of defensive errors, big swings, and pitching foibles from the Bronx squad, the Rays swept the Yankees in three games. After the White Sox took a 2-0 series lead, one win away from a trip to the ALCS, Cleveland, led by strikeout-heavy pitching and timely hitting, was able to win three straight elimination games, sealing a comeback and taking the series from the White Sox. Both Cleveland and Tampa Bay had better regular season records than their opponents.
In the National League, the 100-62 Dodgers could not sweep the Braves, but defeated them in four games, in a surprise to few, despite soaring temperatures in Los Angeles. The series between the Brewers and Padres, which included a controversial call on a baseball hit into the roof of Milwaukee’s stadium, also went to four games, with the 103-win Milwaukee “Brew Crew” advancing to face the back-to-back World Series champion Dodgers, with their star-studded roster. Once again, the teams with better records won the series.
This led to a “Final Four” of the Rays and Guardians in the American League, and the Dodgers and Brewers in the National League. Amid much discussion of teams like the Dodgers’ unfairly high payroll making the sport uncompetitive, three of the final four teams (all but Los Angeles) are considered low-payroll, small-market teams. At the same time, teams like the Mets and Blue Jays with very high payrolls missed the playoffs entirely. While this may be a fluke, and a salary cap still seems necessary for competitive balance, these results are encouraging for most baseball fans (outside of Los Angeles at least).
In the American League, the battle for the pennant went back and forth. After Cleveland took a 2-1 series lead in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series, Tampa Bay, headlined by excellent pitching from trade acquisition Freddy Peralta (sent over by the Mets before the trade deadline) came back to win the series in six games.
On the National League side, while each game was a battle and Los Angeles had leads at one point in every game of the series, the Brewers erased those leads through their “small ball” approach to hitting, flashes of power, and a very strong bullpen. They were helped by lackluster performances on the Dodgers’ side, including from superstar Shohei Ohtani. While Ohtani hit a three-run home run, giving the Dodgers an early lead in the decisive fourth game of the series, Milwaukee came back and sealed the series sweep nonetheless. This is remarkable given the Dodgers swept the Brewers in four games in last year’s National League Championship Series. After returning the favor, Brewers manager Pat Murphy congratulated his players by proclaiming, “They (the Dodgers) may have a bunch of Hall of Famers, we’ve got a bunch of gamers. And the gamers won this week.” As he concluded, the gamers popped champagne in the clubhouse, celebrating the Brewers’ first trip to the World Series since 1982. Fitting the pattern, the teams with better records once again prevailed in the two championship series, setting the stage for a remarkable World Series between the Brewers and the Rays. For both teams, it would be their first ever World Series win. Both have remarkably similar approaches to baseball strategy as well.
Throughout the postseason, star-studded rosters like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros have fallen to underdog opponents, surprising many. However, when one looks at teams’ regular season record, the postseason so far could be perfectly predicted. October baseball has been paradoxically shocking and not a surprise at all, at the same time. Regardless of who prevails in the end, baseball fans have already seen history be made in the playoffs this year, and we are guaranteed to see more. Congratulations to the Brewers or Rays on their first ever MLB championship. *Written on October 22, 2026, before the start of the World Series
