For me, I have around three favorite days of the year. My birthday, of course. The first day of summer break. And Grammy day. Not because I think the Grammy voters are right or because the best album always wins. No. It’s because I love music and statistics. And music award shows are the best combination of the two. 

For the past two years, I have tried to predict the big three Grammy awards based on several categories. This year, I chose popularity and past Grammy outcomes. Basically, if someone had won a lot of their nominations before, that was a good sign. If someone had never been nominated before, that was a bit more worrying. If someone had been nominated many times and had never won before, that was a bad sign. 

Was I right? No. As you will clearly see below. However, I think I could have been more wrong. 

Record of the year:

Winner: “Flowers”

My pick: “What Was I Made For”

I was a bit torn on this one. On the one hand, Billie Eilish has been nominated for this award three times and has only lost once. On the other hand, “What Was I Made For” was from a movie. Originally, I thought that would disqualify her. However, looking back, a lot of songs from movies have won this award. Most recently was “My Heart Will Go On” from Titanic. Also, Billie Eilish was the only nominee who had won this category before. 

I was clearly wrong. I hadn’t picked Miley Cyrus because she had never even been nominated for this category. This one was kind of a curveball. 

Album of the year:

Winner: “Midnights”

My pick: “Midnights”

If “Midnights” hadn’t won, I would have been worried. First, this was the most popular album, by a large margin. Taylor Swift has also been nominated for Album of the Year 5 times and had won three of them before this year. She literally had a 60% chance of winning this one. Only one other nominee had won this category, and that was Jon Batiste with one album. 

Song of the year:

Winner: “What Was I Made For”

My pick: undecided

My assumption when I was picking the front-runner for this award was that Billie Eilish was going to win record of the year. So I tried to pick someone else for this one. However, I could really only rule out people. Taylor Swift was out, of course, since she’s never won and had been nominated 3 times before. Lana Del Ray, Jon Batiste, and Miley Cyrus had never even been nominated before. So for me, it was between “Kill Bill,” “Vampire” and “Dance the Night.” If I knew Record of the Year wasn’t Billie Eilish, she would have definitely been on my list. Well, hindsight is 20/20 I guess. 

Best new artist:

Winner: Victoria Monet

My pick: Ice Spice

Since it’s impossible to win this award twice, my pick was entirely based on popularity. Ice Spice was the clear frontrunner in that one. Past winners–Olivia Rodrigo, Megan Thee Stallion, Billie Eilish, and Dua Lipa–have also been incredibly successful in the years before their win. Perhaps that should have been a clue. Many of these people were well known for songwriting before their win. Victoria Monet was a songwriter years before her career as a singer began. She had actually been nominated for multiple Grammy awards as a songwriter, including Album of the Year. 

Best pop solo performance:

Winner: “Flowers”

My pick: too close to call

Generally, I had predicted that if someone was nominated for one of the big three—record, album, or song—then they would win whatever genre categories they were nominated for. The only exception to this was best pop. Why? Because there were too many other big three nominees. Of the five songs nominated for Best Pop Solo Performance, four of them were also nominated for Record of the Year. The only song that wasn’t was “Paint The Town Red” by Doja Cat, a number one hit from an artist with 16 Grammy nominations. 

Best rock song:

Winner: “Not Strong Enough”

My pick: “Not Strong Enough”

Best rock performance:

Winner: “Not Strong Enough”

My pick: “Not Strong Enough”

Best R&B song:

Winner: “Snooze”

My pick: “On My Mama”

Best R&B performance:

Winner: “ICU”

My pick: “Kill Bill”

Best progressive R&B album:

Winner: “SOS”

My pick: “SOS” or “The Age of Pleasure”

Best Alternative Music Album:

Winner: “The Record”

My pick: “The Record” or “Did You Know There is a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd”

Best Alternative Music Performance:

Winner: “This is Why”

My pick: “A&W” 

Best American Roots Performance:

Winner: “Eve Was Black”

My pick: “Butterfly”

These are the genre categories I was talking about before. In general, I got all the album categories right. For songs or performances, the only ones I got right were rock. Good information to have next year. 

In summary, I got some categories right, some categories wrong and some categories very wrong. As for where I went wrong, well, I won’t really know until I get different things wrong next year.